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4 CapitalPress.com Friday, January 15, 2021 American Farm Bureau Convention Farm economy finding its footing, experts say By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI Capital Press Don Jenkins/Capital Press File Dockworkers unload containers. Trade decisions by the Biden administration, as well as the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, will be major factors influencing the U.S. farm economy in 2021. have amounted to $45 bil- lion and the federal gov- ernment is set to disburse another $13 billion to farm- ers in 2021, he said. “The conversation mov- ing forward is we’re not going to see that much ad hoc support flowing into the agricultural sector,” Newton said. Trade plays a significant role in the strength of the U.S. agricultural economy and will be a major focus for the Farm Bureau as Presi- dent-elect Joe Biden takes the reins, he said. “That’s the big unknown with this administration.” The “phase 1” trade deal with China, announced by the Trump administration in early 2020, hasn’t fully lived up to expectations but has increased agricultural exports to that country, New- ton said. China should have imported $33 billion to $36 billion in U.S. farm products in 2020 under the agreement but was on track to buy less than $23 billion, he said. Even so, that amount marks a near-record level of agricultural exports to China, which was a top buyer of U.S. crops and meat before a trade dispute erupted in 2018, Newton said. While the Biden admin- istration is expected to ini- tially concentrate mostly on domestic concerns, there is a possibility it will re-exam- ine entering the Trans-Pa- cific Partnership — a major agreement among 12 coun- tries from which the Trump administration withdrew, said Michael Nepveux, an AFBF economist. Aside from economic incentives, the signato- ries are motivated to re-en- ter TPP for geopolitical rea- sons, such a containing the influence of China, Nepveux said. “I wouldn’t be surprised By MATEUSZ PERKOWSKI Capital Press if we do end up re-engaging there.” Trade negotiations aren’t the only factor affecting U.S. farm exports. Demand for U.S. beef, pork and poultry products has grown within China as that nation has dealt with the devastation to its domestic hog industry from the African swine fever virus, he said. “It’s still very much a driver in livestock and pro- tein markets,” Nepveux said, noting that U.S. exports to China surged 132% for beef and 45% for pork last year. The coronavirus pan- demic disrupted major U.S. slaughter facilities and caused significant process- ing backlogs of cattle last spring, but the cattle industry largely recovered and ended the year on a positive note, said Derrel Peel, an agricul- tural economist with Okla- homa State University. Prices for cattle may rise by 5-9% during 2021, par- ticularly in the latter half of the year if the coronavirus is brought under control, Peel said. “I think we’re starting the year with a little bit of momentum in these markets going forward.” A weaker dollar is mak- ing U.S. meat products more attractive overseas, but the livestock industry faces headwinds from rising feed prices and a drought in the West, he said. The industry’s recovery is also contingent on the avoid- ance of another major eco- nomic disruption related to COVID-19. “Consumers have to have money to spend,” Peel said. In the crop sector, the farm industry is still feel- ing the effects of weather problems in 2019 that delayed planting and har- vest of corn and soybeans in major growing regions, said Shelby Myers, an AFBF economist. Production dropped 5% for corn and 20% for soy- beans that year, leading to lower year-end invento- ries of those major com- modity crops, Myers said. Contrary to expectations, farmers also didn’t produce record-setting crops of corn and soybeans in 2020. LEGAL NOTICE OF PUBLIC MEETING The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) announces a meeting of the Washington State Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) on Thursday, January 21, 2021 from 9:30am to 12:30pm. This meeting will be held by teleconference. For more information, contact Nick Vira at 360-704-7758. S225672-1 The regulatory pendulum is expected to swing toward stricter Clean Water Act enforcement, though experts say the Biden administra- tion’s changes probably won’t be immediate. Farmers and environmen- talists have been in a politi- cal tug-of-war over the law’s scope for years, largely due to ambiguous legal interpre- tations of the statute. While Democrats will now have power over Con- gress, their majority is too slim to make changes to the law, said Don Parrish, the American Farm Bureau Federation’s senior director of regulatory relations. “We see absolutely no legislative path to amend the Clean Water Act, one way or another,” Parrish said Jan. 11 during the Farm Bureau’s virtual convention. With Congress unlikely to act, that effectively leaves the Biden administration to implement its own inter- pretation of the statute and associated legal precedents, much as the Trump admin- istration did in 2020 and the Obama administration did in 2015, he said. The “Waters of the U.S.” rule implemented by the Obama administration was widely criticized by farm advocates for taking an overly expansive view of the water bodies subject to federal permitting and regulations. The Trump administra- tion’s “Navigable Waters Protection Rule” narrowed the definition of regulated waterways, which was hailed as a victory by the American Farm Bureau Federation but derided by environmentalists as increasing pollution. The Biden administration will likely want to leave its own mark on Clean Water Act enforcement but it has so many environmental pri- orities that actual revisions to the regulation probably won’t happen for another 18 months to three years, Par- rish said. “That’s kind of good news for us, because I think we’re going to get a very consistent application of the rule during that time period,” he said. Once the Biden admin- istration does take action on Clean Water Act regula- tions, however, it’s likely to broaden the scope of regu- lated waters to include those adjacent to wetlands and to ephemeral streams, Parrish said. The “big wild card” in Clean Water Act regula- tion will be the 14 lawsuits that are currently pending against Trump’s rule in fed- eral court, he said. The Biden administration will probably want to put the litigation on hold while deciding what to do. If a judge does overturn the Naviga- Don Parrish ble Waters Protec- tion Rule, the ruling may apply nationwide or only in certain fed- eral court Michael j u r i s d ic- Sistak tions, Par- rish said. It’s also unknown which regulation would act as a “backstop” in that situation. If federal judges do have differing interpretations of Trump’s regulation, it’s pos- sible the U.S. will face a “patchwork” of Clean Water Act enforcement across the landscape — a fate similar to that of the Obama adminis- tration’s regulation, he said. The shift in direction with the Clean Water Act will likely be reflected in other changes the Biden admin- istration makes to environ- mental rules, said Michael Sistak, AFBF’s grass- roots program development director. “There will probably be a push to reverse some of the regulatory efforts of the Trump administration,” he said. Pressure to enact climate legislation has simmered in Washington, D.C., for years and can be expected to reach a “fever pitch” under the Biden administration, said Andrew Walmsley, a con- gressional relations director with AFBF. The Farm Bureau has anticipated such debate on Capitol Hill and has been highlighting the positive contributions that agricul- ture makes toward captur- ing and storing carbon, thus mitigating climate change, he said. While climate legisla- tion will be a major topic, Walmsley said he doesn’t expect Congress to enact a single legislative package — rather, climate-related pro- posals will be included in other bills. “It will be an issue that infiltrates almost every other issue that’s out there,” he said. Aside from environmen- tal policy, the Biden admin- istration is expected to focus on labor issues, said Allison Crittenden, an AFBF con- gressional relations director. Labor reforms may cut both ways for the agricul- ture industry, which could face “troublesome” propos- als such as doubling the fed- eral minimum wage, impos- ing overtime wages for farmworkers and increasing enforcement by the Occu- pation Safety and Health Administration, she said. klamath cattlemen‘s association A n n i v e r sa r y 61 s s t t fe b. 6, 20 2021 21 est. 1960 Bull Sale Klamath County Fairgrounds Stilwell Arena – Klamath Falls, OR 916-806-1919 Providing Scholarships to the Youth of the Klamath Basin due to covid restrictions the event center activities are not currently scheduled. These events include Western Trade Show, Stock Dog Trial, all Horse Events, Horse Sale and Ranch Rodeo. Schedule subject to change due to state regulations, check website for latest information. presenting sponsor For complete Bull Sale Schedule go to: www.klamathbullsale.com 541-274-1499 S225167-1 Check us out on FaceBook at: Klamath Bull & Horse Sale S216595-1 Though the U.S. farm economy has proven resil- ient to the shock of the coro- navirus outbreak, it remains on precarious footing while the pandemic rages, experts say. Key crop and live- stock sec- tors appear healthy in early 2021 and have John room to Newton improve as the year pro- gresses, according to econo- mists at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s virtual convention. However, as the popu- lation endures “wave after wave” of COVID-19 infec- tions, the coronavirus remains the “most press- ing issue” facing agriculture and “mass vaccinations” are needed to get the industry on solid economic ground, said John Newton, AFBF’s chief economist. “It won’t be until then that we start to turn the corner in the farm economy,” Newton said Jan. 12. Farm profits were actu- ally the second-highest on record last year, at $120 bil- lion, but that’s largely due to “ad hoc support” from the federal government, New- ton said. About 39% of net farm income in 2020 came from government payments, which have also helped farmers withstand retaliatory tariffs in the trade dispute with China, he said. Since 2018, trade and COVID-19 relief payments Pendulum swings in Clean Water Act regulation